Friday, March 30, 2018

NBN exposed on The Project [i told you so]

You tube: NBN exposed on The Project [i told you so]
17-Jan-2018
Apologies in advance for not reformatting.


Comment:
I've transcribed Fifield Q&A's [at end].
He's good at sticking to 'the talking points', but the coalition is still playing it's games of conflation, misleading and outright lies.
You'll note he _never_ admits that customers have problems.

Plus the Big Lie that Mal-T introduced in 2013 and the media conveniently missed:

The NBN was to only ever deliver 100Mbps.
This sleight of hand has been central to all the Coalition's rhetoric since.

Nope, Nope, Nope.
The Full Fibre NBN was _born_ doing 1,000Mbps, NBN Co chose to sell 100Mbps to not badly disrupt the ADSL market.
The 'G' in GPON is, always was, GIGABIT.
The same Gigabit FTTP customers in Wollongong are getting from Myrepublic in their 'gigacity' year-long trial.

There's another misdirection that Mal-T introduced.
His definition of 'Broadband' is limited to only downloading content & Just One Metric, 'speed', fully describes that.

I beg to differ:
 “Real” Broadband is not just “speed”:
- high availability and service reliability (no or few “dropouts”, no extended outages [5min total outage/line/year])
- low latency (you can talk to another person without echo, or play on-line games in real-time)
- low jitter (voice and videos doesn’t stutter or break-up, they play smoothly and continuously. It Just Works.)
- low error rate (voice, video and file downloads don’t suffer corruption or lots of ‘retransmits’)

- maintains ‘acceptable’ throughput even during Busy Hour.
when school is out, "the Internet" doesn’t grind to a halt, remains usable
- line utilisation isn’t reduced to low gigabyte ‘Quotas’
10Mbps can download 3,000GB/month if unrestricted. 10% line utilisation is 300GB/mth
- Upload speeds are able to support video and large files uploads.
No problems downloading whilst uploading
- Available Download speeds support users needs.
Users needing High bandwidth can select it and have the service connected immediately.

====================

Q&A Summary:
- the NBN project is 'going well’: ‘On Time, On Budget, On Spec’
- none of which is true.
It’s been constant cost blow-outs, changed deadlines and constantly reducing speeds and coverage.
- latest B/S is the halt on HFC rollout. Seems End of Life coax can’t do DOCCIS, the core of the MTM plan.
- blew through the ‘absolute' spending cap of $29.5B in the last year when not even half finished
- has now extended ‘loans’ by govt for another $19.5B to finish.
Presumably no commercial lenders were daft enough to loan NBN Co a cent.

- we never promised you 100Mbps, nothing like it in fact. Your fault if you didn’t read the fine print!
only 25Mbps everywhere
10% of fixed-line (FTTN/B, HFC, FTTP) customers won’t get 50Mbps, rest 50Mbps ‘or better'
only 25% of FTTN/B customers will ever get ~100Mbps

- people only need 5Mbps for 1 x High-Def Netflix
- that’s our sole target and usage model [for both business and domestic use?]
- all those other devices you have, turn them off. You get to use one.
- gaming & voice / video chatting that need low-latency, low jitter, low error rates? screw you.
- Nobody is allowed to upload anything, downloads are solely what you’re allowed

- if you’re not happy,
- you are the problem
- you’ve set your expectations incorrectly, we’re Keeping Our Promises, so screw you.
- we blame consumers for buying slow plans and expecting 'fast'.

- The MTM approach is wonderful
- "everyone else is doing it", except other Govts aren’t
- these are the Private Industry (Telstra) equivalents he’s comparing to.
because the real Govt Rollout comparison is New Zealand and they are killing us.
- MTM is "Fit For Purpose" [as we choose to define it, not customers who are already complaining loudly]
- it has an upgrade path
- no, HFC and FTTN are NOT a path to Full Fibre. That was stated in MT's 2013 Policy as well.
- the only parts of the network that are reusable for Full Fibre:
the Points of Interconnect & fibre links to the Distribution Areas.
ALL the nodes, HFC gear AND copper/coax has to be removed and disposed of.
- it’s the fastest and lowest cost per premises model,
but somehow the MTM model needs 2-4 times ‘funding’ than the ~$2,250/premises cost [x 9M].
Why is this so?
Nobody is pointing out the disparity between the per-premises ‘cost’ claims of the Coalition ($20.25B
vs the ‘Peak Funding’ cost of $49B +/- $5B.
- MF Claims Full Fibre:
- would’ve cost $30B more,
but that’s only ever been a political number invented by the LNP and News Ltd,
not backed by ANY commercial figures.
- would’ve taken 6-8 years longer (2026-2028) to fully rollout. Again, political claim, no basis in fact.
- the only cost- and time-blowouts have been with the Coalition MTM Plan itself:
2013: we can do this all for just $19B with an absolute funding cap of $29.5B
[just $900M less than Full Fibre, or under $25/premises in extra interest in _total_]
2014: it’s going to now cost $40B, still less than Full Fibre,
and we can’t meet our ‘everyone gets 25Mbps by 2016’ promise, it’s the same 2020 deadline
who knew that it'd take time and money to change technologies for 9M premises?
2016: now it’s going to cost $49B, maybe $5B more or less.

- then Fifield claims that NBN Co will never achieve it’s break-even ARPU is a _benefit_ to customers.
ARPU = Average Revenue Per User (per month)
“break-even” is accounting code for
“Can NEVER make a profit, pay back loans, pay dividends and probably never pay back equity”.
MF: "This is really the kicker,
"The approach that we are taking, will see Internet Bills $500/year _less_ [$40/mth] than they would’ve been under the ALP."
- NBN Co’s CEO, Bill Morrow, publicly admitted in Oct 2017 that they are unlikely to
_ever_ increase ARPU from $43 to $52 required in the Business Plan.
- but Fifield here is suggesting a shortfall of $40/mth at retail,
is that $10-$20/mth/customer for NBN Co & it's "A Good Thing”.
- Has Fifield just said the MTM can never deliver more revenue than the current $42?
[For the first time, NBN Co ARPU _dropped_ this year, solely because of low FTTN revenues]

MTM is a crock and they know it.

====================

NBN exposed on The Project, 17-Jan-2018
“Slow-Go Zone”. Comms Minister Mitch Fifield interviewed.

[01:50] Q: A lot of people at home are really disappointed with the NBN,
so why have you failed to deliver the speeds you promised us?

A: Well, the good news about the NBN is it’s On Track, On Budget and On Time.
Yes, with a project of this magnitude when you try to switch 11M premises to a new network there will be some teething problems,
but we’re absolutely committed to, and will deliver, what we promised, which is 90% of NBN fixed-line network would be able to have speeds of at least 50Mbps.
Absolute committed to the guaranteed mandate of a min of 25Mbps across the network.
There are good speeds, they are speeds that can meet the needs people have in their homes and business.

[02:42]. Q: There was more to that promise though, because we were also told there would be top speed of 100Mbps,
 the figure that has been used very regularly by your government, and NBN Co has been forced to admit that only a quarter of FTTN customers will _ever_ get that much.

A: Our commitment has always been that there would always be a minimum mandated speed of 25Mbps across the network, regardless of technology,
that will be delivered.
We have always promised that 90% of premises in the fixed-line network would get speeds of 50Mbps,
and that’s absolutely the case.
You mentioned in particular the FTTN part of the network.
Yes, it’s true that 25% of premises will be able to get 100Mbps, but 80% of premises on FTTN will get speeds of 50Mbps or more,
so we’re absolutely delivering on what we’ve promised…

[03:46] Q: if you’re doing such a great job, with the NBN,
why do you think so many people are disappointed, why do you think you have so many unhappy customers?

A: I think it’s partly an issue of expectations.
People are getting to understand on the NBN, there’s a range of different products you can purchase from your retailers,
different price points,
people are finding out what is the right product for the needs they have.
I should point out that a number of you on the panel, would enjoy Netflix [add joke],
to watch HD netflix at home you only need 5Mbps.
So, I think one of the issues is people don’t necessarily understand what it is they need to ‘meet their needs’.
As I say, you only need 5Mbps to watch High-Def Netflix at home.

[04:45] Q: When we were first presented with this NBN proposal, it wasn’t just about meeting our needs, it was about looking into the future.
And we were going to have world-class infrastructure, as global innovators.
Are we to give up on that dream and just be happy watching Netflix? [laughs]

[05:00] A: we’re absolutely going to have a network that is Fit For Purpose
 and Fit for the Needs that we have,
and that can be upgraded as needs require into the future.
What you need to bear in mind, is the approach we’re taking, the MTM,
using the technology that will see the NBN rolled out fastest and at lowest cost,
is actually what’s done in the USA, France, Germany.
This is the common approach.

What we have with this approach,
is an NBN that will be completed by 2020,
which is 6-8 years sooner than would’ve been the case under our predecessors,
and with $30B less cost.

But, this is really the kicker,
The approach that we are taking, will see Internet Bills $500/year _less_ [$40/mth] than they would’ve been under the ALP.
[Is he saying the ARPU of NBN Co will be $20 lower? - will never be able to make a profit from that.]

—ends— [06:00]