Thursday, August 28, 2014

Confirmed: Govt Intercepts can't identify source from large Telcos mobile internet

From long-running posts on problems with Carrrier-Grade NAT (CGNAT) by Geoff Huston of APNIC, I'd previously posited that the current call for "metadata retention" is driven by Intelligence Agencies needing to identify sources. This SMH article points to a recent 9-page PDF Consultation Draft, extracts below. Stilgerihan in ZDnet points to both the SMH piece and a 16-pg 2010 Draft, heavily redacted when first released under FOI.
Links: Brandis' follies, and metadata catches downloaders not serious crims.

CGNAT is only used by the largest Telcos. Twenty years ago, Optus used NAT for its Cable (HFC) internet and Huston writes about mobile Internet now using private 10-Network addresses internally.

What a real Cost Benefit Analysis does.

Contrast the noise from the Vertigan/Ergas report with a real report from Industry.
Note the description of what a CBA is intended to do.

I'm at a loss as to how a profitable business executing a detailed Business Plan, on-time and on-budget, and running substantially ahead of revenue financial projections, requires an Economic Benefits Assessment to the community. It's already profitable, there is no "Cost" component.

Friday, August 22, 2014

The Numbers are in. Now we know why Rupert is anti-NBN, pro mobile.

Murdoch famously tweeted that "NBN is ridiculous". His mouthpiece, The Australian, explained that away as:
"In fact, NBN would be great for Foxtel because it would take all those programs into every home."
But he is worried mobile technology has overtaken the need for the NBN.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

NBN Co already running at 500% Cost Benefit Ratio. Why the Vertigan/Ergas Review hold-up?

The Michael Vertigan and Henry Ergas "Cost Benefit Analysis" of NBN Co was announced on 12-Dec-2013 and is still yet to deliver their review.
Meanwhile, NBN Co has achieved more than 500% Cost-Benfit Ratio.

There are two problems I have with the assumptions and methodology announced:
  • Even under the dubiously recalculated figures, the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) of all versions of the NBN Co business plan is positive, albeit FTTP was 2%, down from the Quigley Business Plan of 7.1%.
    • NBN Co is not, and never has been, an expenditure-only investment.
    • The "Cost" of the CBA is zero by definition, and the resulting Cost-Benefit Ratio is infinite.
    • From the announced revised estimates, there was never a reason to run a CBA, once positive IRR's were established.
  • On the available Government Funding figures, somewhere between $5.3B and $7B has been injected as equity by the Federal Government into NBN Co.
    • There is already a directly attributable and precisely measurable economic Benefit of the NBN project: the additional increase in Market Value of listed Telecoms companies.
    • This is at least $36.5 billion,
    • for a Cost-Benefit ratio, already, in excess of 500%.
    • This is the direct benefit only to shareholders of the companies.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Telstra and the new NBN Deal: Not inked yet and the details won't favour Turnbull.

I find Malcolm Maiden's piece, Telstra's new NBN deal is as good as the first one, Aug 14, 2014, to be misleading and factually inaccurate: Telstra is only a viable business and growth company because of the Labor Government's NBN Co initiative.
Howard and Switkowski's legacy was a deeply damaged and uncompetitive business palmed off onto naive investors. The Telstra share price was performing a "dead-cat" bounce and didn't recover until the NBN Co agreements were signed.
Since the 2013 election, it has continued to increase in value, but not noticeably faster.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Brandis's stumbling and bumbling has given away more State secrets than Snowden.

Expanding on my previous comment that only ordinary citizens, no serious criminals or terrorists, will be caught by the mismanaged & mangled "thought bubble" of Brandis on metadata retention .

Brandis is a fool or knave, probably both. he's given away two important intelligence secrets, he's trying to secretly "backdoor" his draconian "Copyright Piracy" laws and he's covertly, possibly unconstitutionally, trying to push costs of Government Intelligence operations onto the private sector.

Monday, August 11, 2014

NBN, Turnbull and the Questions that aren't being asked

This Van Badham piece on the NBN inspired some comments from me:

Letter to Alan Kohler. Time has proven you right and Turnbull wrong, where's the reprise?

Alan Kohler was not just right to ask Malcolm Turnbull why Telstra would play ball with him at all, but why they wouldn't screw him mercilessly. Turnbull's promises are now well past their "use by" date and Kohler could be writing a "please explain" follow-up.

This is the note I sent him asking him to reprise his earlier comments.

New 'metadata' laws will only catch ordinary folk, NOT terrorists or serious criminals

Life Matters on RN ran a session today on the proposed Metadata legislation. I tweeted a comment, but it didn't make the cut.

First, what's metadata?
It's "Data about Data", an inexact, mutable and undefinable concept, best described as "it varies on what we have, who wants to know and what the law says it is".